Undercut Metrics at Suzuka

Suzuka's long, high-energy corners chew through tyre surface temperature faster than most circuits on the calendar, and that changes the strategy math in a way that's easy to underestimate from lap-time data alone.

The undercut window

Our delta modelling puts the effective undercut value at Suzuka's Turn 1 hairpin entry at roughly 0.8–1.1 seconds per lap of fresher tyre in the first three laps after a stop — high enough that a one-lap-earlier stop can flip track position even against a car that's genuinely faster on pace.

Two-stop dominance

Across the last four editions of this race, the two-stop strategy has out-scored the one-stop in every simulated Monte Carlo pass we've run, with the gap widening as safety-car probability increases. Teams starting from the second half of the grid have the most to gain from committing early.

Editorial strategy modelling, not an official team prediction.